A coastal resort with an abundance of fortifications. A main roadway bordered by anti-tank ditches. BBC Verify’s satellite analysis has uncovered some of Russia’s extensive defenses as it prepares for a significant Ukrainian counterattack.
After months of stalemate, the anticipated assault will be a crucial test for Ukraine as it attempts to demonstrate that it can achieve significant battlefield gains with the Western-supplied weaponry.
By analyzing hundreds of satellite images, the BBC has pinpointed key locations in the significant construction of trenches and other fortifications in the southern Ukraine since October.
These four locations reveal what Russia anticipates from the counteroffensive and what defenses Ukrainian forces may face.
1. Crimea’s western coastline
Prior to its annexation by Russia in 2014, Crimea was renowned for its seaside resorts.
Instead of sun loungers and parasols, Russian personnel have installed 15-mile-long (25-kilometer-long) defense structures along the coastline.
The image below depicts the only sand shoreline on the west coast that is not protected by cliffs or hills.
First, there are “dragon’s teeth” along the shoreline, which are pyramid-shaped slabs of concrete designed to impede the movement of tanks and other military vehicles.
Behind them is a line of fortifications that offers protection from incoming attacks. Along the trenches, numerous shelters are also visible.
Along the coast, piles of wood, digging machinery, and stores of dragon’s teeth indicate that construction was still in progress when the image was captured in March.
Due to Ukraine’s limited naval capacity, some military experts believe the defenses are likely a precaution rather than an indication that Russia intends to defend a seaborne assault.
According to intelligence analyst Layla Guest, the fortifications are likely in place to deter any audacious Ukrainian effort to assault Crimea by sea as opposed to on land.
The beach fortification is merely one example of an extensive network of trenches, as indicated by the black dots on the map below, based on the research of open-source analyst Brady Africk.
BBC Verify has been able to identify additional critical fortification sites by identifying specific trench locations from social media videos.
Once an exact location was determined, satellite images could be used to trace an extensive trench network.
2. Tokmak
The small city of Tokmak is located on a key route in the southeast of the nation, which Ukrainian forces may use to cut Crimea off from other Russian-held territories.
According to reports, Ukrainian civilians have been relocated in order to transform the city into a fortress. This would provide soldiers with access to provisions and a safe haven from which to retreat.
The above satellite image reveals a network of trenches excavated in two lines north of Tokmak – the direction from which Ukraine would have to attack.
Behind these trenches is an additional belt of fortifications surrounding the city, with three distinct layers of defenses visible in this satellite image.
Anti-tank ditch appears at the summit of the satellite image. These are typically at least 2.5 meters deep and are intended to entrap enemy tanks attempting to traverse.
Behind the gully are multiple ridges of dragon’s teeth and another network of trenches.
However, Ukrainian forces are likely to encounter additional ambushes.
Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies believes it is highly probable that mines have been concealed between Tokmak’s three defense lines.
“Minefields are a standard component of every defense, and the Russians have made extensive use of them throughout the conflict.
Here, they will be larger and better concealed, slowing down Ukrainian assaults so that other combat elements, such as artillery and infantry, can engage the attacking forces.
BBC Verify has also discovered three other nearby villages with similar fortifications.
3. E105 highway
A line of anti-tank ditches and trenches has been constructed along a 22-mile (35-kilometer) segment of the E105 west of Tokmak.
The E105 is strategically significant because it connects Russian-held Melitopol in the south to Ukrainian-held Kharkiv in the north. The side that controls it can transport troops throughout the region with relative ease.
If Ukrainian forces attempt to use this road, Russia will likely target it from behind their defenses with heavy artillery. Russia’s position is also within range of an adjacent road, the T401, which could be targeted as well.
“The Russians are concerned about newly constructed Ukrainian armored formations. If these units can gain access to a major thoroughfare, they can move very rapidly, as Mr. Cancian explains.
“Russian defenses intend to force them off the roads and consequently slow them down.”
Rivnopil, located north of Mariupol
Mariupol is strategically located between the eastern Russian-occupied territories and the southern Crimean peninsula. It also became a symbol of resistance to invasion when a small band of determined combatants held out for months while the city was besieged.
Given Russia’s expectation that Ukraine will attempt to retake the city, BBC Verify decided to examine the territory encircling it, resulting in the discovery of a collection of circular trenches.
Near the small village of Rivnopil, approximately 55 kilometers (34 miles) north of Mariupol, each circular trench has a mound of earth in the center, possibly to shield artillery or to keep guns stable.
In the meantime, the circular trenches provide soldiers with cover and enable the artillery to aim in any direction.
It demonstrates that Russia is preparing to defend areas of open ground (lack of natural protection from slopes or rivers) in addition to their larger network of trenches.
Nonetheless, according to a number of analysts, Ukrainian forces can use comparable satellite imagery and drone surveillance to identify and circumvent many of these defenses.
Alexander Lord of the strategic advisory firm Sibylline Ltd asserts, “The Russians will likely attempt to funnel Ukrainian forces along heavily mined and pre-targeted routes.”
Satellite images reveal evident defenses, but this may be part of Russia’s strategy.