In the midst of a perilous love triangle is Taiwan.
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen was greeted in New York last week; this week, she met in person with US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
Supporters waved Taiwan flags, while a tiny plane carrying a pro-Beijing banner flew overhead when the two leaders entered the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library “Only China! Taiwan belongs to China.”
In a brief statement, Ms. Tsai stated that Taiwan’s democracy was “against unparalleled odds” and that the island was “grateful to have the US on its side.”
The conference was denounced by China’s foreign ministry, which cited “seriously incorrect acts of collaboration” between the US and Taiwan.
In the meantime, the Communist Party of China has launched its own charm campaign by inviting Ma Ying-jeou, the predecessor of President Tsai, to visit the mainland.
Mr. Ma supposedly embarked on an extraordinary five-city tour to honour his ancestors. In fact, he has been to their cemeteries in central China. The trip is, however, also political. In reality, since the PRC’s formation in 1949, this is the first invitation extended to a previous president of Taiwan.
Beijing is attempting to win over more hearts and minds towards Taiwan while also preventing a rise in Taiwanese nationalism during the [2024] presidential campaign, according to Mr. Sung.
He continues by saying that Mr. Ma’s presence gave them the “political cover” they needed.
Last week, Mr. Ma delivered a statement that was remarkably political upon his arrival in Nanjing: “Chinese people occupy both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Moreover, both come from the Yellow and Yan Emperors.”
Ma Ying-jeou serves as a symbol of submission, thus Beijing is being kind to him, claims Prof. Stanton. “We are all Chinese, he claims. He and the Chinese are in agreement about it, but the Taiwanese are not.”
According to studies, more than 60% of Taiwanese citizens identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese, which poses a risk to Mr. Ma’s plan.
Nevertheless, there can also be a prize just around the corner. More than half of Taiwanese, according to surveys, think a war with China is now likely. According to Mr. Sung, Mr. Ma’s objective is to persuade Taiwanese voters that only his party, the Kuomintang (KMT), can prevent that war.
“It has to do with preserving his reputation as the link that connected the two Taiwan Strait sides. Moreover, Taiwan is beginning its presidential campaign on a domestic political level. According to the KMT, we can make peace with China.”
Ms. Tsai’s visit’s timing is scarcely a coincidence. There is a strong and growing antipathy towards China in the US. And as a result, Democrats and Republicans are competing to make the most public displays of support for Taiwan.
It’s a key factor in why Nancy Pelosi, a former House Speaker, was so eager to visit Taiwan last summer, despite the fact that it provoked an angry response from China. Possibly the main source of contention between the US and China is the autonomous island, which Beijing says is a part of its territory.
According to William Stanton, a scholar and former head of the American Institute in Taiwan, “I was personally quite against the Pelosi visit.” “A high-ranking US politician visiting the island was merely prodding China for little gain. And the results were rather terrifying.”
China issued gruesome warnings as Chinese missiles soared over the island. Governments in the region’s capitals started taking the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan seriously.
Despite this, Mr. McCarthy, a Republican, stated his intention to emulate Ms. Pelosi as soon as he was elected house speaker in January. But according to Prof. Stanton, President Tsai determined that wasn’t a smart idea.
He claims that it was obvious that Kevin McCarthy planned to pull a Pelosi. Tsai Ing-wen, however, declined, suggesting that we drink tea together in California instead.
Why Taiwanese youth are training to fight Defiant Taiwan’s identity is becoming less Chinese.
President Tsai may not want another difficult US leader visit to Taiwan just yet, but she also needs to demonstrate to China that it will not be successful in preventing communication between a democratically elected government in Taipei and its most powerful ally in Washington.
The California meeting follows. Despite China’s warning that the US was “playing with fire on the Taiwan subject,” Mr. McCarthy has far from minimised it, calling the meeting “bipartisan.”
After the meeting, the White House claimed Beijing didn’t need to “overreact.”
According to Australian National University political scientist Wen-Ti Sung, Taiwan needs to engage in this so-called “transit diplomacy.”
China has been successful in poaching many of Taiwan’s formal friends over the years, reducing the number of nations that recognise Taipei to only 13 today.
According to Mr. Sung, “These international tours are in line with Taiwan society’s needs for worldwide recognition.” These alternative proxies for international support are significant to Taiwanese people “when there is a lack of international recognition.”
The relationship between Washington and Beijing, Taiwan’s two suitors, is deteriorating, and that is the big issue. According to Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia programme of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the relationship is worse now than it has ever been since the US and China gained diplomatic recognition of one another in 1979.
“President Biden and the Pentagon are unable to reach Beijing on the phone. China has been deemed an existential threat by Congress “she claims.
Washington has maintained a fragile status quo for many years by accepting Beijing’s stance that there is only one Chinese government, the one in the mainland, if not really endorsing it. Since 1979, it has maintained formal links with that government, not Taiwan. It has, however, also been a firm supporter of Taipei, promising to support the island’s self-defense.
Yet, the concern is that China now thinks the US is determined to alter the current situation, which has contributed to maintaining calm in the Taiwan Strait for the past forty or so years.
President Biden informed Xi Jinping that he did not favour the separation of Taiwan from China and that he is not using Taiwan as a weapon, according to Ms. Glaser.
In the wake of difficult state visits or official meetings with Taiwan’s leaders, she adds, such pledges are unlikely to mean much.
Hence, Taiwan likewise needs Mr. Xi to pick up the phone while Mr. Ma tours China and Ms. Tsai takes tea in California.
