The news of the deadly assault on a Moscow concert hall immediately led to anticipations in Ukraine of ensuing accusations against Kyiv, as well as the likelihood of more aggressive military responses.
Despite the immediate insinuations and later direct claims by President Vladimir Putin implicating Ukrainian involvement, the Islamic State group had already claimed responsibility, which the United States had seemingly corroborated with prior intelligence warnings. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed indignation over these accusations, criticizing the Russian leadership’s attempt to link Kyiv to the incident and emphasized the contrast with Russia’s own actions in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
The assertion that the assailants were attempting to flee to Ukraine was met with skepticism by Ukrainian intelligence, highlighting the absurdity of heading towards a highly militarized and active conflict zone. Videos circulating on social media depicting the brutal treatment of the captured suspects raise serious questions about the reliability of any confessions obtained under such conditions.
In his address, Zelensky urged Russians to question their own security services and the possible disregard of US intelligence, rather than pointing fingers at Ukraine. He also touched on theories suggesting potential Russian governmental involvement in the attack to consolidate power and garner support for the war and further mobilization, reminiscent of past suspicions surrounding incidents used as pretexts for military actions under Putin’s command.
Despite the exchange of missile attacks between Russia and Ukraine following the concert hall attack, these actions appear more in line with the ongoing conflict dynamics rather than an immediate retaliation. The assault underscores a significant internal threat to Russia, contrasting starkly with the unfounded pretext used for the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This internal vulnerability poses a dilemma for Putin, who is averse to any perception of weakness, driving a keen effort to deflect blame onto Kyiv despite evidence suggesting otherwise.
