The widespread fighting in Sudan has dashed expectations for a peaceful transition to civilian rule.
As is so often the case, civilians have endured the most as forces loyal to two rival generals vie for control, with dozens killed and hundreds injured.
As fighting between the Sudanese army and paramilitary escalated for a third day, medical facilities were bombarded with military assaults in targeted attacks, according to doctor’s organisations and several eyewitnesses. In remarks to CNN, both sides subsequently denied shelling hospitals.
Here is the pertinent information.
Power struggles are at the heart of the conflict.
Sudan’s military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, are at the centre of the confrontations.
Prior to the present, they were allies. The duo collaborated to overthrow ousted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and played a crucial role in the 2021 military rebellion.
As part of plans to restore civilian rule, however, tensions arose during negotiations to incorporate the RSF into the country’s military.
Who would be subservient to whom in the new hierarchy is the central question.
According to CNN sources, these hostilities are the culmination of what both sides view as an existential struggle for dominance.
Sudan is no stranger to revolutions.
It is difficult to exaggerate the magnitude of Bashir’s ouster. He had led the country for nearly three decades when rising bread prices sparked widespread demonstrations that led to his ouster.
During his reign, South Sudan separated from the north, and the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Bashir for alleged war crimes in Darfur, a separatist region in the Western Hemisphere.
After Bashir’s ouster, the military and civilian groups governed Sudan in an uneasy alliance.
Armed forces dissolved the power-sharing government in 2021, bringing an end to the situation.
The RSF has a contentious history.
The Rapid Support Forces are the leading paramilitary organisation in Sudan, and their leader, Dagalo, has risen to prominence swiftly.
During the Darfur conflict in the early 2000s, he led the notorious Janjaweed forces, which were responsible for human rights violations and atrocities.
Bashir formalised the group into paramilitary forces known as the Border Intelligence Units in response to international outrage.
In 2007, its troops became a part of the country’s intelligence agencies, and in 2013, Bashir established the RSF, a paramilitary organisation led by Dagalo under his supervision.
In 2019, Dagalo turned against Bashir, but not before his forces opened fire on a pro-democracy, anti-Bashir sit-in in Khartoum, murdering at least 118 individuals.
Later, he was designated deputy of the transitional Sovereign Council, which co-ruled Sudan with civilian leadership.
The two adversaries are identical.
Burhan is essentially the administrator of Sudan. Burhan was the army inspector general during the overthrow of Bashir.His career path closely resembles that of Dagalo.
He rose to prominence in the 2000s for his role in the gloomy days of the Darfur conflict, where it is believed that the two men first met.
Al-Burhan and Dagalo both solidified their ascent to power by cultivating relationships with Gulf superpowers.
They commanded separate battalions of Sudanese forces that were sent to Yemen to serve with the coalition forces led by Saudi Arabia.
They are currently engaged in a dominance struggle.
“Attempt at a coup”
Burhan, speaking to CNN, described the RSF offensive as a “attempted coup.”
Burhan told CNN by phone, “This is an attempted coup and rebellion against the state.” He stated that RSF leader Dagalo had “mutinied” against the state and would be prosecuted in a court of law if he were captured.
Burhan claimed in an interview with CNN that the RSF attempted to “capture me and kill me.”
A spokesperson for RSF told CNN that the organisation was “attempting to capture him” and subject him to justice for “many acts of treason against the Sudanese people.”
“We are fighting for all Sudanese people,” the spokesperson declared. We will bring all culpable parties to justice and ensure they receive a fair trial.
Burhan responded to CNN’s question as to why the Sudanese people should trust him given his former alliance with Dagalo: “The Sudanese Army is the people’s army.
“It is not owned by specific people or organisations,” he explained. It is a national institution with the responsibility of defending Sudan.
Sudan confronts an uncertain future
It is uncertain where the fighting will terminate. Fighting has been reported in locations far from the capital Khartoum, where both factions assert control over strategic locations.
The Sudanese armed forces are estimated to number between 210 and 220,000 by various official and unofficial sources, whereas the RSF are believed to number around 70,000 but are better trained and equipped.
International powers have expressed alarm, and on Monday, the United Nations Security Council will convene its first meeting on the crisis in Sudan. In addition to concerns for civilians, there are likely additional motivations at play, given that Sudan is resource-rich and strategically located.
CNN has previously reported that Russia and Sudanese military leaders collaborated to smuggle bullion out of Sudan.
CNN’s Sudanese sources believe that Sudan’s military leader Burhan was also supported by Russia until international pressure forced him to publicly deny the presence of the Russian mercenary group Wagner in Sudan.
Egypt and South Sudan have promised to mediate, but in the meantime, the only certainty for the Sudanese people is more suffering.
