Most sequels are inferior to the original. We can all conceive of several sequels that should have never been made. Voters in the United States may have similar concerns about the upcoming presidential election, which is increasingly likely to be a repeat of the 2020 election with the same candidates in the main roles.
Joe Biden has now affirmed his candidature for the Democratic nomination, while Donald Trump remains the undisputed frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
It’s a story we’ve already seen, and very few people appear eager to witness it again. A recent survey revealed that only 5% of Americans want both President Biden and former President Trump to run again, while 38% do not want either candidate to run.
One of the reasons Mr. Biden is so determined to retain the White House is that he believes he is the only candidate capable of defeating Mr. Trump. We will see. The reality is that he is the only person to have defeated him.
Elections involving an incumbent president are frequently viewed as a referendum on the preceding four years. The Biden administration can point to policy successes, and its campaign slogan will be “let’s finish the job.”
However, it was remarkable that his official launch attempted to characterise the election as a choice between moderate and extreme, competent and insane candidates. The same “battle for the soul of the nation” that Mr. Biden emphasised in his previous campaign.
Mr. Biden warns of MAGA (Make America Great Again) extremism and the threat he claims it poses to American democracy.
In the past two years, Mr. Trump has falsely asserted that the 2020 election was hijacked from him. If he is the Republican nominee in 2024, he will continue hammering this message. Last year, however, it was evident that repeating falsehoods about election fraud was not a winning strategy. In the midterm elections of 2022, the majority of the prominent election-denial candidates sponsored by Trump fared poorly.
In contrast, the Democrats performed significantly better than anticipated in those congressional elections, even retaining control of the United States Senate. This performance ensured that President Biden will not face a significant challenge from within his own party.
Abortion was the issue that helped the Democrats the most. Voter opposition to the revocation of the constitutional right to terminate a pregnancy has been substantial. Consistently, two-thirds of Americans tell respondents that they believe abortion should be legal and accessible.
In the 18 months leading up to the next presidential election, Vice President Biden will address the issue multiple times. Mr. Biden accused Republican extremists of “dictating what healthcare decisions women can make” in the launch video, which featured footage of an abortion rights protestor outside the Supreme Court.
Republicans resemble a dog that has finally caught the vehicle it has been chasing. After decades of being able to advance anti-abortion positions without offering much detail, candidates who support abortion prohibitions now realise that it could be detrimental to their electoral prospects. State legislatures under Republican control are advancing restrictive legislation, but party strategists are concerned about the impact on the national level.
But President Biden remains vulnerable. 42% of respondents approve of his performance, while 52% disapprove. These figures are historically low. Donald Trump is the only president since Ronald Reagan to be as unpopular at this stage in his first term.
Regardless of which Republican ultimately challenges Mr. Biden, it is inevitable that they will portray the 80-year-old president as a senile old man (even though Mr. Trump is only four years younger). They will hope that a vigorous cross-country campaign will exhaust the president. He will not be able to campaign from his Delaware basement as he did during the 2020 Covid election.
The current video contains numerous photos of the president appearing deliberately vital and energetic, including one shot of him running. However, he cannot maintain this until election day.
His opponents will also cite falling inflation (which still means rising prices) and record numbers of migrants crossing the southern frontier of the United States. Two issues that are certain to inflame the Republican base.
The president does not motivate Democrats in the same way that Donald Trump and his chief rival, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, do. However, they have acknowledged that Mr. Biden may be their best option in 2024.
And the Biden campaign appears to believe that the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House remains the most effective method to increase Democratic and independent voter turnout. After all, it worked the last time, so they will hope for the same outcome in a prospective sequel.
