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Pentagon leak: Spring offensive downplayed and other key takeaways

April 11, 2023
in News
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Ukraine's spring offensive could yield "modest gains", documents say

Ukraine's spring offensive could yield "modest gains", documents say

Many secret US documents have been released and are currently being shared online.

Discord, a messaging service, has been hosting pictures of the confidential documents since February.

The documents—some of which are labelled “top secret”—paint a thorough picture of the conflict in Ukraine and provide information on China and allies, along with timelines and dozens of military acronyms.

According to sources from the Pentagon, the documents are authentic.

These are some of the main conclusions that BBC News and other news organisations have reached after reviewing some of the papers.

Special forces from the West are present in Ukraine
One document, dated March 23, mentions the existence of a few Western special troops operating within Ukraine, but it makes no mention of their operations or where they were stationed. The largest delegation (50) is made up of the UK, Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).

Western countries normally avoid commenting on such delicate issues, but Moscow is sure to seize on this information given that it has recently asserted that it is not only at odds with Ukraine but also Nato.

According to other documents, a dozen new Ukrainian brigades will be ready when an operation that could start in a few weeks is ready. The tanks, armoured vehicles, and artillery pieces that Ukraine’s Western allies are supplying are listed in great detail.

One graphic features a timeline that evaluates the state of the ground in eastern Ukraine as spring advances.

One memo dated early February, according to the Washington Post newspaper, indicates doubts about Ukraine’s prospects for success in its impending counteroffensive, stating that issues with gathering and maintaining enough forces could lead to “small territorial gains.”

Analysis of Ukraine’s challenges in keeping up its crucial air defences includes warnings from late February that Kyiv would run out of essential missiles.

There is also a list of casualty numbers. One slide mentions up to 131,000 Ukrainians and 223,000 dead or injured Russian forces.

According to some Ukrainian officials, the leaks may be part of a Russian disinformation campaign. But, there are also indications of annoyance and rage.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a presidential adviser, tweeted: “We need less thought about ‘leaks’ and more long-range weaponry to properly end the war.”
Western special troops are reportedly present in Ukraine.
How confidential documents emerged online before disappearing
Egypt had a covert plan to give Russia rockets.
A different document from mid-February was made available to The Washington Post, and it revealed that Egypt had covert intentions to manufacture 40,000 missiles for Russia.

According to The Post, in order to “avoid issues with the West,” President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi instructed authorities to preserve production and shipment secrets.

According to a government official, ordering his people to work shifts was the least Egypt could do to compensate Russia for earlier, unnamed assistance. What the prior assistance is referring to is unclear.

Russia’s percentage of Egyptian wheat imports increased in 2022, according to a January article from Reuters, suggesting one rationale.

There is no evidence to suggest that Egypt really made the planned transaction to Russia. Whether this was in response to a direct warning from Washington is unknown. Nonetheless, Egypt is one of the countries that receives the most US security aid, amounting to over $1 billion year, giving the US administration a lot of clout.

The accusation in the document was called “utterly untrue,” according to an unnamed official who was quoted on Egyptian TV networks, and Cairo did not choose sides in the conflict.

In the meantime, the Kremlin called the accusation “simply another canard.”

Concerned about supplying Ukraine with weapons, South Korea
According to a classified document obtained by the BBC, South Korea struggled with the decision to send arms to Ukraine.

The signal intelligence-based report describes a private dialogue between national security advisers.

They are split between US pressure to arm Ukraine and their stance of refusing to arm belligerent nations.

To avoid appearing to have caved in to the Americans, one of the advisors proposes sending the shells to Poland instead.

Last year, Seoul argued that the US could not transfer the shells to Ukraine as part of a resupply agreement. Seoul has been hesitant to arm Ukraine out of concern for upsetting Moscow.

Security concerns have been raised in Seoul as a result of the leak, and opposition MPs are wondering how the US was able to listen in on such a crucial meeting.

US leak reveals S Korea is conflicted over providing weapons to Ukraine
In February, China tested experimental hypersonic weapons.
The Post also discovered that Beijing tested the DF-27 hypersonic glide vehicle, one of its experimental missiles, on February 25.

According to the records, the missile travelled 2,100 kilometres (1,300 miles) in 12 minutes.

According to The Post, there was a “high possibility” that the experimental rocket would penetrate US ballistic missile defence systems.

Details about a new Chinese warship and a rocket launch in March that would improve China’s mapping capabilities were also included in their research.

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Source: bbcnews
Via: Paul Adams, Jean Mackenzie and Antoinette Radford
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